Is the USA in decline?

[reasek1]

This theme crops up from time to time. I have heard some commentators argue that the USA has some similarities to the Soviet Union before it folded. However, no-one is willing to pin-point when the US will sharply decline -indeed some argue it will gradually decline -meaning it will have less and less influence over global affairs as the years go by.

Here are the views of some interesting commentators:

John Mearsheimer (doesn't argue that the US is in decline, per se, but frequently argues that the rise of other great powers is possible, i.e. that the USA may not remain the sole super-power...)


Chalmers Johnson (general discussion on empires / great powers -and how they change/rise/fall)


Sergey Karaganov (He usually argues that we are entering into a new era which will see a 'multi-polar' world.


Of course there are many other commentators on such topics... please feel free to link to them if you so wish. Hopefully some of our own geo-political commentators here at GH will share there own views.:cheers:

 

[brmstn69]

The US has been in decline for the past 40 years...

 

[iltman]

short answer no, the rise of the USA in the early 20th century was mirrored by the decline of the European powers, the latter half of the 20th century saw the development of a bi polar world with the US in competition with the USSR. the 90s and early noughties saw a unipolar world with the US in the acendent, what we are seeing is the re-establishing of a multi polar world, though i think Chinas rise is built upon shaky foundations. the US will remain a great power for many genrerations to come though wether it will want to excersize that power is another question, the US has alays gone through periods of engagement with the wider world and periods of isolation, and i believe it is entering such a period now.

 

[tonka]

I think Iltman has it just right. And I think America stepping back is not a bad thing. We don't need to solve every world issue. We can't do it anyway.

My real concern is our divided government. We need more consensus if we intend to be effective.

 

[W!nston]

Peaks and troughs. All economies experience them.

Statistics can be manipulated and used to support the arguments of both sides in a discussion such as this one about the decline of influence regarding powerful governments.

The U.S. is still the most influential power on earth if you consider immigration. We seem to be a magnet for immigrants. The opportunities here seem to lure people away from their native country.

The consumer driven economy doesn't seem to be declining to me. If anything it's more voracious than ever. Each new wave of tech innovations stir it's appetite to a feeding frenzy.

I saw a story on 60 Minutes some months back about China's real estate market. They have built hundreds of cities from the sewers up to the tallest sky scraper but they are all ghost towns no one lives or works in. The cities are empty. That don't look like a thriving economy.

Russia. What can I say? I think everyone realizes that it's economy is on a knife's edge. They can rattle their sabers all day long but threatening the world with nuclear war suggests weakness rather than strength. There will be no victor after that holocaust.

Samuel Clemens wrote "The report of my death was an exaggeration" and I think that's the case here

 

[reasek1]

I think America stepping back is not a bad thing

How far should the USA step back though? :thinking:

Maybe stepping back gradually. Closing a few military bases here and there to see what happens...

 

[gb2000ie]

For something to be in decline, you have to decide what it is you are measuring.

Are you measuring the economy in some way? Perhaps GDP, number of people employed? trade deficit?

Are you making some kind of measure of political influence?

Are you making some kind of measure of average happiness of citizens?

Are you making some kind of measure of military might?

Are you making some kind of moral judgement? (hint - lots of people prattling on about decline are bemoaning the spread of equality)

I could make a cogent argument that America is rising, and I could also make a cogent argument that it's plummeting. Ultimately, this is a glass half full, glass half empty psychology test more than anything else!

A lot of the people prattling on about decline seem to be old, white, and right-wing - just saying.

B.

 

[reasek1]

For something to be in decline, you have to decide what it is you are measuring.

Are you measuring the economy in some way? Perhaps GDP, number of people employed? trade deficit?

Are you making some kind of measure of political influence?

Are you making some kind of measure of average happiness of citizens?

Are you making some kind of measure of military might?

Are you making some kind of moral judgement? (hint - lots of people prattling on about decline are bemoaning the spread of equality)

I could make a cogent argument that America is rising, and I could also make a cogent argument that it's plummeting. Ultimately, this is a glass half full, glass half empty psychology test more than anything else!

B.

If you accept (as most people would) that America is a power capable of influencing global affairs, then many different measures could be used. The challenge is to take account of complexities while still being able to deliver an accessible point of view. Opinions will naturally differ but it makes for an interesting , worth-while debate.

A lot of the people prattling on about decline seem to be old, white, and right-wing - just saying.

I don't agree with this characterization. This is a subject widely discussed by both the young & old, on the right, on the left etc., from university undergrads, to the man on the street, to the level of senior politicians, geo-political advisors, and among human rights advocates. Whether the USA rises, or is in decline, it effects us all.

 

[reasek1]

Here is a dialogue on global affairs:

Panel Discussion: The Shifting Global Balance of Power in the 21st Century

Clark Randt
President of Randt & Co. LLC;
Former US Ambassador to the People's Republic of China

Sergei Karaganov
Dean, School of World Economics and International Affairs,
National Research University Higher School of Economics

Kishore Mahbubani
Dean, Professor in the Practice of Public Policy,
Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy

Yao Yunzhu
Major General and Director, Center for China-America Defense Relations,
Academy of Military Science,
People's Liberation Army


The key theme that surfaced during the panel discussion on 'The Shifting Global Balance of Power in the 21st Century' was the question of security assurances among the great powers in Asia.

 

[iltman]

I think Iltman has it just right. And I think America stepping back is not a bad thing. We don't need to solve every world issue. We can't do it anyway.

My real concern is our divided government. We need more consensus if we intend to be effective.

i agree with your arguement for concensus, if you look at the constitution the whole purpose of the construction of the American government is to promote compromise. Unfortunately due to a number of different reasons compromise is becoming less and less possible. I hate to sound alarmist but as a student of US history the closest parallal i can see is the similarly conflicted politics of the 1840s and 1850s.

 

[tonka]

Some reasons America will continue to thrive:
- The American economy has been more resilient than the other top tier economies. Since the great recession, its been a steady rebuilding.
- With all the headlines on immigrant issues, America is incorporating new people into the society. Sometimes ugly, always messy. But its happening.
- America can tolerate global warming better than most. Yes, we have our coastal cities (and I live in one of them), but there's a vast continent inland.
- America is pretty flexible. You might not know it from Washington politics, but we find solutions to our problems. It's a huge task for a continental nation, but it happens...most of the time.

 

[garth33]

YOU guys all REALLY need to getting fucking LAYED!pX_X

(I'm not saying, I'm just saying)
:heart:G33