The Greek "tragedy"

[Frenchgerman]

Tell that too the Greek government!!!! And sympathy - I don't want sympathy from them - the only thing I want is that they will stop to trick and start to clear out their Augean stables!

sorry to say but I didn't expect anything else from you and the likes ...

 

[Frenchgerman]

So the moment a government promises something, it is allowed to do what it wants? I am not sure international contracts make sense when this rule is applied.
It certainly is the only country which gets blamed. But frankly, we are used to it. Especially when it is done by the french. That is why we really don't care for sympathy, we don't get it anyway, and it just makes it harder to get things to work.

but I'm not French ... I'm German (if the definition for being german is : bred and born there by equally German parents) !

just like I already told Shelter I don't love 'the eyes closed' !

but I 'concede' one point : living abroad, I have another view on Germany and its actions like someone who still lives there.


And for the point in the quote above : yes, the government has a mandat from the people, in this case, to stop austerity !
the mandate is NOT to not pay.


but on another point ... it is really curious how Germany can break the rules (and France too) but when another country does the same, then Germany draps itself in white sheets and is shaking the finger ....

 

[gb2000ie]

It might look like this on first sight, but the idea of "money for free" is wishful thinking.

Perhaps if you won't believe me, you'll believe the Financial Times:

Germany can now borrow for five years at less than 0 per cent, meaning investors are willing to pay to lend to the German government.

http://refhide.com/?http://www.ft.c...feb-11e4-aa89-00144feab7de.html#axzz3XhbYJd2p

The interest rate has to do with the risk involved. Giving huge amounts of money away to solve problems with "free money" will change that. Else we could just keep on borrowing money for ourselves and have a nice 20%-overspending party for a few years. Because nobody will ask for the money getting paid back at some point.

No one is suggesting doing daft shit with the money. Germany borrows or less than 0% for 5 years, and gives the Greeks a break on repayments for 2 or 3 years. What is lost? Literally nothing. What ever Greek payments that were due for those years can literally be borrowed for nothing. What is gained? Greece has a real chance of getting back on it's feet, and actually being able to repay Germany (and others obviously) the money it owes.

That's what I call sound fiscal policy. Not a balls-out give-away like you mis-characterise it.

Yes, in fairy tale land Angela Merkel clicks a button and money appears without consequence. Problem solved. :rofl:

Well, yes actually, that's what it means to be able to borrow at less than 0%.

So the german people electing their government is nonsense?

I think you need your eyes tested. I said no such thing!

I said that the 'suffering' Germany would endure for borrowing money interest free is nonsense, which it is.

Who do you think is electing our government then? Because that is the person who has to be convinced that using his money on Greece is an idea good enough to reelect that government again. Too bad we do not know who this mysterious entity could be. Else it might be possible to talk to him.

Or her. Any politician with a brain and an actual grasp of economics could easily make the case.

It would go something like this:

1) we are not giving the Greeks free money. We are simply giving them the oportunity to turn their economy around so they can repay us every cent they owe.
2) in exchange for our help, we will be insisting on a crackdown on corruption, and that the government continue to run primary surpluses for the next 10 years.
3) It benefits everyone in the union to get a working solution for Greece. It is important for the future of the Euro that we can be seen to pro-actively deal with crises.

After getting kicked into that direction by the Troika who in turn took care of the debts. Something which according to you was completely wrong as 20% overspending should have gone on some more time to magically end the recession.

No, the basic economics of the business cycle is not magic, and I did not say to keep things exactly as they were. I said to wage a war on fraud and use the money saved to stimulate the economy so it becomes possible to run surpluses for years and years, pay everyone back, and not destroy the nation in the process.

I don't disagree that step two cannot be having a surplus as big as the overspending of the previous years from nothing - that sounds too much like the money for nothing idea which just works as long as one does not take n account any consequences. But when loosening the rules, what would keep Greece from getting back into the old ways and just spend the money on exactly what they cut in their budget before? When can the surplus be considered save?

That is what I think Troika negotiators should be focusing their attention on. There should be lots of conditions attached to any pause in the rate of repayments. Remember, I have never been asking for a one-sided deal. I have been insisting on a properly negotiated and fair deal, and well negotiated fair deals have two sides to them. We will give you break you need to kick-start your economy, you will commit to X, Y and Z financial controls.

When Ireland did it's deal with the Troika there were LOTS of strings attached - we now have a water tax that no one in this country wants, not the politicians, no the people, but it was a condition of our bailout, and I got my bills this week!

At some point of course the policy has to change - I am with you there. And indeed it is a matter of timing. But also a matter of trust. And this government has broken quite a lot of porcelain (as we say in germany - an elephant in the porcelain store... our elephant rides a wheelchair btw.). In the end the sooner Greece can manage its own debt, the sooner they can stop listening to the outsiders, which will make everybody happier.

I might quibble about the extent of porcelain damage, but I do not disagree at all that the sooner the Greeks are in a position to take over their own affairs fully again, the better for all of Europe!

I am just pointing out that it really does not matter at that point that the money is LENT, as LENDING it directly worked against the crisis. Although you made it sound that LENDING was by no means something morally acceptable as it probably should have been a GIFT...

While I'm sure you imagine I think it should have been a gift, I actually don't agree with that idea at all. Why? Because of the moral hazard argument you made. Running your country badly should come at some cost. Where we disagree is on how much and for how long. When the last deal was being negotiated, a gift would have been improper IMO. Today, I wouldn't object to it, but, I also don't think that is a remotely likely outcome. So, if it has to be a loan or chaos, lets make it a loan, but, lets make it a good one, one that is based on sound economics, and that has a real chance of actually fixing the problem!

The depression was already in the numbers. There is no way of cutting a budget that much out of control without fallout. Had this been done ten years earlier, the problem would have been significantly smaller and there would have been much more room for options.

The point is that the graph shows the projected fallout, not where things would have gone sans crisis. That top line is what the troika said the fallout would be. The bottom line is what the fallout really was!

Which would mean: actively giving money. I am not saying it is necessarily a bad idea, but at the same time it has to be clear to you that whoever accepts not receiving interest payments loses that income for the time OR in case of private interest payments, someone else has to jump in and give that money. There is no free money.

Since Germany can borrow for free for 5 years, there actually can be free money. How? Germany borrows at 0%, lends the money to Greece to pay off all the debtors who's income payments are due. The Greeks would get the money interest free for less than the 5 years Germany got it interest free, and would then start paying Germany interest at a low affordable rate, but enough to make sure Germany definitely gets a return on the investment.

The reason people keep looking at Germany is the 0% rate, that makes all sorts of things possible.

It might seem tempting on the paper but just like the free money issue it is just trying to avoid a problem by rescheduling to happen in some distant future.

No - not at some distant future, at an agreed exact future! That is what negotiations are for - agree it, specifically, don't sign until there is a date and a rate in black and white!

What if there is no boom and the whole cycle you want to surf on does not do its textbook curve which will do all the work for you?

That would certainly be highly irregular. I can't prove that the sun will rise tomorrow, but it is really quite likely. We have been observing economies for centuries, and the business cycle has shown itself to be very real. I can't prove it will continue, but it does seem really quite likely!

True, but still it is unlikely that there will be any kind of financial control, which gives the UK banks a head start on the market. And in the end that gives the politicians everywhere else the opportunity to cave in to the lobbying. There is a big "we would like to, but" lie.

Given that banking is global, perhaps the only actual solution is a large international treaty - if the US, Euro-zone, and Great Britain were to sign an international treating laying down a regulatory bottom-line, then it would really mean something. The biggest hubs of international banking are in London, New York, and Germany, if all those places agreed on some basic rules, banks would have to live by those rules.

Sadly, I think the chance of anything like that happening has passed, at least for now. The window of opportunity was at the start of the global crisis almost a decade ago. Now, I think it's unlikely anything significant will happen until the next time the banks pummel the global economy

B.

 

[Frenchgerman]

Tell that too the Greek government!!!! And sympathy - I don't want sympathy from them - the only thing I want is that they will stop to trick and start to clear out their Augean stables!

each time I read this, I'm more furious !

Who the hell do you think you are ?

Why do we (the Europeans) have to be judged by the German basic law ?
Why do I have to be judged by the German Supreme Court and their restrictive interpretation of our constitution ?
Who the hell do they think they are to declare the first articles of the German constitution to be inalterable ?


When the German don't want to be solidary with anyone else, why do they stay in the EU ! Then they should get the hell out of there !

 

[gb2000ie]

Tell that too the Greek government!!!! And sympathy - I don't want sympathy from them - the only thing I want is that they will stop to trick and start to clear out their Augean stables!

What a great European!

Our union has a warm and fuzzy future witch such enlightened citizens shining the way to the future.

 

[Frenchgerman]

sorry for the outburst, but is was looming for some time now !


so, when Germany don't want to be solidary economically with Greece, tell me why France and the UK and the USA still have to be solidary with Germany in military aspects (nuclear umbrella), on military interventions ?

the augean stable of which you talk ... Germany has many skeletons in its closet :
still no abortion (only conditioned)
still no gay mariage (a partnership, yes, but not mariage)
no adoption rights for gays
transgender sterilization
an army which is in a state of brittleness that it can no longer be counted on
a financial politic which charges the poor and leave the rich untouched
a unequality for woman (KKK) which is identical to third world countries
a natality which is already problematic and will cause many more problems in the near futur : economic and financial especially, and why this ? because children are a burden, psychologically, financially, organizationally


so clean your own stable before criticizing others !

 

[W!nston]

Why did the Europeans agree to a common currency? Did Great Britain ever jump on the Euro bandwagon? Do any Europeans have anything good to say about the Euro? Do those countries who have been listed as on the wrong end of the stick where the economics of the Euro is concerned have anything positive to say about the Euro? What will happen when some economically lower tier country, like Greece, opts out of the Euro? It seems Russia and China have already demanded an end to the Global Dollar so what's to stop Greece et al from joining the new Global Yuan/Renmimbi - Ruble Market?

I'm serious here. I'm not baiting a trap for a more hostile discussion. I don't understand why countries stay in a system that seems to be as unfair as the Euro has been described. The threat such a break-up entails should be enough to persuade the rich countries to find a solution to the debt problem before all hell breaks loose.

With that I will shut my mouth and and just read this thread. I don't want to get drawn into the fray, lol.

 

[Frenchgerman]

especially the first point is worth discussing ...

The costs of the nuclear umbrella is not supported by Germany, so the German military budget, one would think, could be concentrated on the classics (army, tanks, planes, and so on).
But ... only some months ago, the German defense minister, party collegue of Merkel and her personal friend, had to admit that all the money from the budget where misspend. Misspend in the sense that the German army was no longer able to conduct missions abroad because of the state of brittleness attained.
And the German military budget had already suffered reduction because the tax cuts had to be balanced somewhere.
and these tax cuts profited whom ?

yes solidarity is a two way street and it has to be for Germany also !


and on anther point which i already wrote about : The German were lucky that the USA did not say after WWII "why help our former enemies" - "why giving them billions of $"

so yes, I'm German, I love my birth country, but I do not close my eyes before its shortcomings.
Unfortunately, these shortcomings are ever more numerous and important and handicapping ...

 

[Frenchgerman]

The euro was and still is an economic necessity for Europe. It's a question of market size. But 1 market with one currency is not the solution if all the rest differs.

The worlds important markets (China, Brazil, India, Russia, USA, etc pp) all have many millions (hundreds of millions really) customer potential, regulated by one currency, one legislation, one financial system.
The 27 countries of the EU have a potentiel of more than 500 million customers, taken individually, the German market is the most important with a mere 80 millions customers.
These 27 countries extend over 4,5 M km².

The USA have a population of 320M and extend over 9,6 M km². India and China are even bigger and more populated.

But most importantly, when voyaging from Cologne to Brussel and the to Paris, you had to pass 2 frontiers and you had to change money to times (from DM to Belgian Franc and to the French Franc).
If you were to take the car, you could easily pass 5 or even 6 frontiers and you would have to change currency all the time.
The 'simple' solution was a common currency, based on the common european market.
But that was evidently a naive assessment of the situation. No common bank system, no common banking legislation, different account systems, different tax systems, etc are the burden of the euro. And the consequences are those we saw (are seeing) : Greece, Ireland, Portugal, Spain, etc

When I lived in Bucarest (2009-11), I saw the Romanian economy falter and with it the Romanian currency. Logically, the Romanians were paid in Ron (Romanian currency). But many had contracted credits in euro ... you can imagine what the situation was with the ron sinking and the euro rising ... but this is a problem for the individual and not a european problem ...

The UK never joined the euro because the British were always a little (or : very) eurosceptic.
the UK is the 1 great european economic power who had gained more from Europe than it paid (contrary to Germany and France, for ex). The EU always had to make exceptions for the UK ... That's the reason why I will not be unhappy and even hope that the UK will quit the EU. because it will be simpler to quit the EU then to quit the euro.
I'm not an economic nor a financial expert, but the prediction describe a catastrophe for all the european economies if the euro falters ... and the predictions all say that when 1 country tries to quit the euro, it will falter.
Exactly on this subject, ARTE, the french-german TV, will broadcast a doentary tuesday evening ...

 

[gb2000ie]

Why did the Europeans agree to a common currency? Did Great Britain ever jump on the Euro bandwagon? Do any Europeans have anything good to say about the Euro? Do those countries who have been listed as on the wrong end of the stick where the economics of the Euro is concerned have anything positive to say about the Euro? What will happen when some economically lower tier country, like Greece, opts out of the Euro? It seems Russia and China have already demanded an end to the Global Dollar so what's to stop Greece et al from joining the new Global Yuan/Renmimbi - Ruble Market?

I'm serious here. I'm not baiting a trap for a more hostile discussion. I don't understand why countries stay in a system that seems to be as unfair as the Euro has been described. The threat such a break-up entails should be enough to persuade the rich countries to find a solution to the debt problem before all hell breaks loose.

With that I will shut my mouth and and just read this thread. I don't want to get drawn into the fray, lol.

The appeal of the Euro is obvious on the continent. Just look at all those physically small countries bunched together, it was very problematic for each to have their own currency as Europe became ever more integrated. Imagine the East Coast of America but where every state, even little Delaware (tiny Luxembourg even had it's own money), has a different currency. In one day's driving you could easily need 5 currencies. All those exchange rates, all those different coins and notes!

Ireland and the UK are a little different - as islands, we didn't have the problems of our neighbours to the east. Great Britain has a big enough economy not to need the Euro.

Ireland on the other hand, does not have a big economy, and saw an opportunity - Americans don't like speaking foreign languages, but they do like selling stuff everywhere. The appeal of being the only English-speaking Euro-country is very obvious!

When you think about the USA, it is a massive area with one currency without big problems. So why is the Euro so different? Simple - we have a currency union but not a fiscal union. There is one lender of last resort for the Dollar - the fed. Europe has no fed, the ECB, despite it's name, is not actually a central bank. It does some things central banks do, but nowhere near all. America also sells bonds as a unit, Europe does not. When Delaware has a bit of a bust, they are not nearly as screwed as Greece, because America borrows money as a unit, so as long as the majority of the American economy is OK, bonds remain cheap. This is why we need Euro Bonds.

Basically - the Euro is a good idea, but it was only half-implemented, because while European countries want to work together, they also want to be separate. This schizophrenia is what buggered up the Euro, and could well bugger up the whole EU project as this century progresses.

Hope that helps.

B.

 

[Frenchgerman]

thanks for the answer GB ... Dare I say, in this instance, "great minds think alike" ...

 

[Shelter]

"great minds think alike" ...

:rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl:

Found an association, take all your money and help poor Greece! That would be something heroical!
So you are only talking big!

 

[Frenchgerman]

the French and the German Banks loaned more than 950 billion € to Greece, Ireland, Spain and Portugal (before the bank crash).
When the crash occured, the banks cried for help and the states came to the rescue - without demanding anything in exchange.

Today, these same banks are garotting Greece and Germany is inable but also unwilling to do anything (in regard to the banks) because it has no lever ...



for the rest, shelter, you can insult me all you want, it doesn't matter a bit ... you started that sh... with your first msg to my comments in the other discussion, so nothing new ! The French have a saying 'le chien aboie, la caravane passe' (the dog barks, the caravan passes by) ...

I'm content that I have a social conscience, which is seriously lacking in you. You, my dear, are an egoist thinking only of your own welfare and it doesn't matter one bit to you if others kick the bucket.

 

[Shelter]

the French and the German Banks loaned more than 950 billion € to Greece, Ireland, Spain and Portugal (before the bank crash).
When the crash occured, the banks cried for help and the states came to the rescue - without demanding anything in exchange.

Today, these same banks are garotting Greece and Germany is inable but also unwilling to do anything (in regard to the banks) because it has no lever ...



for the rest, shelter, you can insult me all you want, it doesn't matter a bit ... you started that sh... with your first msg to my comments in the other discussion, so nothing new ! The French have a saying 'le chien aboie, la caravane passe' (the dog barks, the caravan passes by) ...

I'm content that I have a social conscience, which is seriously lacking in you. You, my dear, are an egoist thinking only of your own welfare and it doesn't matter one bit to you if others kick the bucket.

Und in Deutschland heisst es passend: Was kümmert es die Eiche, wenn sich die Wildsau an ihr scheuert!

 

[Frenchgerman]

Und in Deutschland heisst es passend: Was kümmert es die Eiche, wenn sich die Wildsau an ihr scheuert!

in English please !

 

[Frenchgerman]

the French and the German Banks loaned more than 950 billion € to Greece, Ireland, Spain and Portugal (before the bank crash).
When the crash occured, the banks cried for help and the states came to the rescue - without demanding anything in exchange.

Today, these same banks are garotting Greece and Germany is inable but also unwilling to do anything (in regard to the banks) because it has no lever ...

...

if this isn't proof that the profit of the banks is more important than the welfare of a whole nation, driven into poverty by the exorbitant demands of the banks (among other reasons) ...

 

[Frenchgerman]

and thinking that this whole shit (Greece, ireland, etc pp) started when the EU didn't sanction Germany and France when they let slip their national debt ... (the famous 3%)

 

[Shelter]

the French and the German Banks loaned more than 950 billion € to Greece, Ireland, Spain and Portugal (before the bank crash).
When the crash occured, the banks cried for help and the states came to the rescue - without demanding anything in exchange.

Today, these same banks are garotting Greece and Germany is inable but also unwilling to do anything (in regard to the banks) because it has no lever ...



for the rest, shelter, you can insult me all you want, it doesn't matter a bit ... you started that sh... with your first msg to my comments in the other discussion, so nothing new ! The French have a saying 'le chien aboie, la caravane passe' (the dog barks, the caravan passes by) ...

I'm content that I have a social conscience, which is seriously lacking in you. You, my dear, are an egoist thinking only of your own welfare and it doesn't matter one bit to you if others kick the bucket.

As I have said before: You (and I don't say "my dear" because you really not "my dear" heaven forbid!!!!) are actually a very unfriendly, unamiable, hateful and ideological obstinate person. Live in your chosen prison. Spread your hate songs as long as you want - I'll NEVER bow my head towards people like you, which wants to establish a dictat of opinions. Nazis have tried it as well as communists - what happened to them?

 

[Frenchgerman]

So when the German voters don't voted to send money to Greece, the correct way for the German government would have been to wait instead of doing anything?
Actually now, you entirely misunderstand the idea of representative democracy. Unless explicitly asked they voters just express their trust in elected representatives who have to do what they think is right. And not making their nation impossible to trust on an international level could be a more important goal than executing the will of some misinformed people who don't have a grasp what anything is about. This goes for Greece just like it does for Germany, even if you seem to be convinced that the Greeks should have more rights than the Germans there...

you have perfectly the right to criticize what I wrote because I thought it was clear (in the light of my other msg) but appearantly it is not.
Greece has to pay back, no question about that, but with more time than demanded by the troika.

For the rest and my understanding of democracy ... generally the politicians and in this precise circonstances the members of parliament are elected, but responsaible solely before their conscience - that's right !
But, generally, they are elected with a program ! Sometimes the program is more important than the person (generally in national elections) sometimes the person is more important (generally in local election).
The Greek government was elected with a program of 'stop austerity' ... the mandat is clear, isn't it ?

 

[W!nston]

I should not give an opinion in this because I know next to nothing about it so I will just pose a question:

Would the lender be better served by the borrower going bankrupt and never repaying the debt? Or would the lender be better served by a re-structuring of the debt re-payment so the borrower can survive to repay the debt in the long run?

Another question would be would the EU be better served by retaining member countries or by pushing them into the arms of another 'Union' like the unholy axis that is growing to the East of Europe?

My friends... please 'kiss and make up' and don't let this divisive subject undo all the good will between fellow Gay men and fellow Europeans. It's not like any of us are going anywhere. We all love GayHeaven. We all love these discussions. Let's not go to bed angry with each other. Let's find the common ground we all share... We are all Gay and we are all human with all the frailties that come with those realities.

When I was young we children would fight and argue all day but at night before we went to bed my mother would make us stand face to face, say we love each other and kiss on the cheek with a big hug. She called that 'kiss and make up'. I always slept better after that. Mother's know best. So 'KISS AND MAKE UP' everyone! Your mother has spoken!

:big hug: