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The Greek "tragedy"

Mardo

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Thought I would post this interview as I think it gives some good insights.:)

'Politicians questioning the whole system of the Euro' - Fmr British diplomat Bill Mallinson
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gb2000ie

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Anyone else what to hazard an opinion as to what happens over the next couple of weeks?

I wouldn't even gamble someone else's money on that - I have no faith that the Troika (esp. the German government) have enough of a grasp on reality to make Greece an offer they could possibly accept.

I get the feeling the Europeans are getting closer and closer to cutting off their own nose to spite their face.

Anyone who thinks they want a "grexit", I suggest having a quick read of this: http://anon.projectarchive.net/?htt...5/06/18/thinking-about-the-all-too-thinkable/

B.
 
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gb2000ie

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@gb2000ie
When I click that link I get a 'malware warning' (not worried though), but then I get...

22221111111_m.jpg


Why not use the anonymizer listed in the forum rules? Then we don't have to view such adverts. The malware warnings are, if nothing else, a pain in the ass.

Sorry but it seems like you are desperately 'clinging' to this anonymizer, even though they are now forcing advertising on us all. Rule = 5.3. If you post links to an external website please code or anonymize the links using this site http://anon.projectarchive.net/

refhide used to be allowed, but not anymore. anon.projectarchive.net is great though:thumbs up:

Simple - I had a keyboard shortcut that would turn what ever was in my clipboard into an anonymous URL.

Refhide used to be one of the good guys - they had no javascript or any other nasty BS.

I've updated my keyboard shortcut to use project archive - hopefully it stays good.

B.
 

Mardo

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Found this presentation with some explanations of what is happening to Greece.

I notice, reading the blitz of newspaper and TV pieces on the Greek dilemma, that there are often completely conflicting reports. You read in one paper that progress is made, then literally within a few minutes other papers are saying progress is not being made. Something was agreed to and then it wasn't.

The presentation below gives one a clear view of at least some aspects of the dilemma. I strongly recommend it. Once Prof. Wolff stands to speak, you will understand why.:)

Austerity and Neoliberalism in Greece with Richard Wolff and Barry Herman | The New School
Published on May 12, 2015
 

gb2000ie

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Prof. Wolff doesn't hold back in his intro! If you want to get the whole thing in 30 seconds, start at about 7:30.

It's a real pity no one with any audio technical ability was available to set up the mics though :(

B.
 

dargelos

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The professor really knows what he's talking about. His explaination is clear and direct. It's worth making the time to listen to this lecture.
 

Shelter

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In my opinion it would be the very best Greek would leave the EU and will return to the Drachme. We will loose all the money we have been pumping to all these corrupt Greek governments and banks in the past! More money to Greek will never reach the normal Greeks (as it never reached in the past) but will fill only again the pockets of the Government and the banks. Since the start into the EU Greek governments have lied, cheated and tricked. These are no partners but only a bunch of hoodlums.

And once more - I don't speak from the Greek people but from Greek Governments from the past until today and Banks.
 
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dargelos

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Twenty two pages into this topic, a lot of people have talked about a lot of things but no mention of 1953. How curious.
I am impressed by the amount of muscular effort that the papers have employed in order to not remember the events of that year.
 

gb2000ie

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In my opinion it would be the very best Greek would leave the EU and will return to the Drachme. We will loose all the money we have been pumping to all these corrupt Greek governments and banks in the past! More money to Greek will never reach the normal Greeks (as it never reached in the past) but will fill only again the pockets of the Government and the banks. Since the start into the EU Greek governments have lied, cheated and tricked. These are no partners but only a bunch of hoodlums.

And once more - I don't speak from the Greek people but from Greek Governments from the past until today and Banks.

What is your opinion based on? What support have you got for your arguments? Actually, what are your arguments?

Everyone who has contributed something useful to this thread has put a lot of time and effort into finding references and researching facts to support their arguments. I have put HOURS into this discussion, but I stopped when I realised you haven't put ANY work into it, and are clearly not actually interested in learning anything new.

Looking at your post, it seems obvious to me that you did not bother to watch the video. If you had, you would understand that you are living in a fictitious universe.

If I am wrong, and you did take the time to actually even HEAR the alternative, what did the professor get wrong? What facts did he get wrong? What unsupported conclusions did he draw? What unsupported leaps does his reasoning make? Where does his logic break down?

I really don't understand the point of starting a thread about something you won't actually take the time to learn anything new about. Honestly, it just does not compute.

B.
 

Shelter

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Dear GB I've heard what this Professor has said! Everything very interesting and well-founded. But this valued Professor is bearing his responsibility only for his own portemonnaie and NOT for all the tax money of the entire EU-backers.

So wherefrom comes the money for Greece - well, from the taxes of all the workers and employees in the whole EU!

Without such a heavy responsibility this good Professor can talk as much as he will! It is only his personal opinion - I have another one and many, many others too!!!

And as I just heard in the radio-news, the Finance Ministers of the EU now are finally brassed off by the slight of hands from Tsipras-Varoufakis & Co. It will give no more money! A totally correct decision after all this back and forth of the last weeks.

Sorry dear GB, I don't want to insult you - which has never been my purpose. You have your preconceived opinion, which you have forced on by statements of some Professors. But as I said all these Professors are as well only men and not omniscient Gods.

I think to give more money to Greece will be tantamount to burn it at once.

If the Greek Government will not finally awake from their utopian dreams and if they will not behaving any longer like defiant children - than will be there no sunshine anymore and this country will crash down! They are living on the edge!

These Tsipras & Co's asking for credits but they are not ready to acquiesce to provide collaterals. And what is more than naughty - they are trying to dictate the conditions to the money lenders - which are all the tax-payers in the rest of the EU.

Dear GB try with this Tsipras/Varoufakis manner to get only a microfinance from any bank and you will surely see how you will meet your Waterloo.
 

gb2000ie

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Dear GB I've heard what this Professor has said! Everything very interesting and well-founded. But this valued Professor is bearing his responsibility only for his own portemonnaie and NOT for all the tax money of the entire EU-backers.

What, exactly, has that got to do with the fact that he argues convincingly that it is not in Germany's interest to fail to reach a deal? He is explaining, intelligently, that it would be WORSE for Germany if they force Greece out.

So wherefrom comes the money for Greece - well, from the taxes of all the workers and employees in the whole EU!

Who is arguing we should not do what is best for all of us? DEFINITELY not me!

The reason I disagree with you is that you want to do what is WORST for all of us!

Without such a heavy responsibility this good Professor can talk as much as he will! It is only his personal opinion - I have another one and many, many others too!!!

NO!

It is his PROFESSIONAL OPINION, not personal, PROFESSIONAL. Your opinion is personal, and unlike the professor, you have provided ZERO actual support for it. You say it is your opinion, but you have not presented as single factual basis for it. He most certainly has backed his up with actual research and scholarly work.

Would you argue about open heart surgery advice from a cardiovascular surgeon like this? "oh sure, he thinks the patient would do better if we did a bypass, but that's just his personal opinion"

And as I just heard in the radio-news, the Finance Ministers of the EU now are finally brassed off by the slight of hands from Tsipras-Varoufakis & Co. It will give no more money! A totally correct decision after all this back and forth of the last weeks.

I know - Europe has just punched itself in the face because it's ill-educated politicians were fed up trying to do their job properly.

Pulling the plug on Greece is a stupid decision we will all live to regret. It's not the Greece history will judge harshly!

As a European, I am disgusted by how inept our so-called leaders have been thought the last decade of crisis.

Sorry dear GB, I don't want to insult you - which has never been my purpose. You have your preconceived opinion, which you have forced on by statements of some Professors. But as I said all these Professors are as well only men and not omniscient Gods.

I have actually taken part in a discussion. I have spent HOURS reading and gathering FACTS to present a REASONED argument. You have not. I'm not the one who is just hanging on to their own opinions despite the evidence. I AM THE ONE BRINGING EVIDENCE, you have brought NONE!

I think to give more money to Greece will be tantamount to burn it at once.

Because you have not taken the time to actually understand the problem.


If the Greek Government will not finally awake from their utopian dreams and if they will not behaving any longer like defiant children - than will be there no sunshine anymore and this country will crash down! They are living on the edge!

Your prejudiced fact-free stereotype of Greece has been shown to be wrong. Fine, cling to it, but you can't use your fantasies to convince me of anything.

These Tsipras & Co's asking for credits but they are not ready to acquiesce to provide collaterals. And what is more than naughty - they are trying to dictate the conditions to the money lenders - which are all the tax-payers in the rest of the EU.

Dear GB try with this Tsipras/Varoufakis manner to get only a microfinance from any bank and you will surely see how you will meet your Waterloo.

The first sign that someone has no idea at all about how national finances work is when they compare a country to a household. THEY ARE NOT THE SAME!

In a household, expenditure does not affect income - IN AN ECONOMY IT DOES. That simple fact changes EVERYTHING. Economics and household budgeting are not the same thing - if your analogies conflate the two, they are utter bollox.

I assumed you wanted to educate yourself. I was wrong. I'm sorry I wasted my time trying to have a real discussion.

I'm off to wank to some porn.

B.
 

Shelter

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One mistake is to think that the greek government (any greek government, this as well as the next few we will see in the coming months) has the power to actually reform the country. Even if they wanted, they would fail to get any majorities. Giving them more money is futile, because even if they had a good plan, they could not use it for actual reforms of the country. It isn't even about the "how" anymore. No movement is possible. The idea of the referendum is an attempt to stall the negotiations without committing to anything and to dodge the responsibility for tough decisions. Or just any decisions at all. Because any attempt for changes would result in losing the majority and catapult them out of office.

And that will happen very soon. This Greek government has gambled away and the Greek people will send them packing very soon. Because they will learn that they have voted for nothing more than worst plungers!

And perhaps there will be a Greek politician who will come like a phoenix from the ashes and will patch again the shards. I will hope for.

But these so called Government has to go - they are guilty for what happened now. If you will playing poker - you must know how to play it. They have overbid - and lost!
 

gb2000ie

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But these so called Government has to go - they are guilty for what happened now. If you will playing poker - you must know how to play it. They have overbid - and lost!

I 100% agree, you are talking about the EU government right?
 

Shelter

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I 100% agree, you are talking about the EU government right?

Dear GB I'm really happy to see that you haven't lost your humor. And I hope so very much that will not send a killer commando to me when I'm let you read here an small lead article from my Sunday Newspaper. I'll try to translate:

"Tsipras plan is cowardly and not cunning
Now it has happened that what of many experts have warned after the election of Alexis Tsipras. The Greek Premier must decide themselves. Will he break his campaign promise and enforced a savings reform? Or is he driving his country into the Grexit and therewith exactly all those people in a much more deeper poverty which have voted for him in the believe for a better life and future?

An inconvenient decision on which Tsipras will loose at the end in any case.
But likewise the instant of time to stick to as a Chief of Government to accept responsibility for his actions - instead of to push it towards his own people per referendum and in so doing pressing out of the money lenders a new grace period, which will be again not the last.

Tsipras plan of a referendum is not cunning. It is cowardly. The Finance-Ministers of the EU shouldn't let him pass this."

I hope so much my translation was understandable and I have not made too many grammar mistakes. If so - please forgive.

The Foreign-Minister of the Federal Republic of Germany Mr. Steinmeier (SPD) and a very reputable politician has said after Mr. Tsipras has called for a referendum and asked his people to vote with NO: "The zigzag course of the Greek Government in the last hours and days will make you totally bewildered. I don't understand how an elected Greek Government recommended his people to refuse the propositions of the EU and with this
held the people of Greece as hostages only to wrest further concessions from Europe."

And he said further: "We are ready to help Greece if Greece will let oneself to be helped!"

Well so I think the ball is in the field of Greece. And it is impossible that Greece is demanding money without any consideration.

And at last honestly a question: why should a German employee or worker (for instance) doing his job until 65 or perhaps 70 (as it is planned now by the Government) and in Greece you can retire with 50 years and that with full pension? Who shall pay that? Again the tax-payers of the EU? And why is Greece until today not in a position to collect reputable their taxes from all - and I mean ALL - citizens of their country?

And at the end something very personal: dear GB I don't hope you will hate me because of my opinion(s) - honestly I want to be your friend and I like it to argue with you and I know very well that you are a very intelligent and educated person which I really admire. And that is said very - no but VERY honestly! But I think in this special case both of us we are opposed fundamentalists. So nonetheless have a great Sunday and a good start into the new week. And PEACE!!! :big hug:
 
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gb2000ie

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The truth is a bit more complicated. The pension system replaces parts of the work insurrance. So the direct comparison with the German system, while used by the Bild newspaper to increase the hatred of its readers, does not really work.

Thank you for pointing that fact out.

If Germany were to offer Greece the German level of every other social support, they would happily give up their pensions!

The problem is, in Greece there are almost no supports other than pensions, and THAT is why the Greeks are so desperate to hold on to them.

Each time a politician tries to pretend Greek pensions can be compared to German ones, they are either ignorant or malicious (or both).

So pensioneers support parts of their family, which makes sense in a more patriarchic society. But this for example is a reform Greece does not dare to approach. While it would not create jobs and not generate money, it would at allow a more precise distribution of what it there
Also it would allow to work with more reasonable numbers in negotiations.
But the party the greeks are having according to tabloid newspapers just does not exist.

Thank you for helping to cut through the false stereotypes.

Also, something else to cut through another stereotype, and to get at the REAL question here - how can Europe stop turning the next small crisis into another catastrophe?

Paul Krugman said:
In 2007, Greece had public debt of slightly more than 100 percent of GDP — high, but not out of line with levels that many countries including, for example, the UK have carried for decades and even generations at a stretch. It had a budget deficit of about 7 percent of GDP. If we think that normal times involve 2 percent growth and 2 percent inflation, a deficit of 4 percent of GDP would be consistent with a stable debt/GDP ratio; so the fiscal gap was around 3 points, not trivial but hardly something that should have been impossible to close.

...

So yes, Greece was overspending, but not by all that much. It was over indebted, but again not by all that much. How did this turn into a catastrophe that among other things saw debt soar to 170 percent of GDP despite savage austerity?

The euro straitjacket, plus inadequately expansionary monetary policy within the eurozone, are the obvious culprits. But that, surely, is the deep question here. If Europe as currently organized can turn medium-sized fiscal failings into this kind of nightmare, the system is fundamentally unworkable.
 

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Dear GB I'm really happy to see that you haven't lost your humor.

NEVER! :)

Also, thanks for taking the time to translate the opinion piece from your German paper. It didn't actually provide any facts to support the opinion expressed, so the only way to evaluate the opinion is to understand who gave it, what their area of expertise is, and how correct their opinions have proven in the past. Since you didn't give us a link or explain who the author was and why his opinion carries weight, I'm afraid I didn't find it very useful in expanding my understanding of the crisis.

And at the end something very personal: dear GB I don't hope you will hate me because of my opinion(s) - honestly I want to be your friend and I like it to argue with you and I know very well that you are a very intelligent and educated person which I really admire. And that is said very - no but VERY honestly!

a) thanks
b) I think it's important that adults can disagree strongly on something, and still be friends.
c) I enjoy many of our interactions here on GH, and think you contribute a lot to this lovely community. It's likely we'll keep disagreeing on this one thread, but I don't think that's any reason not to be friends!

But I think in this special case both of us we are opposed fundamentalists. So nonetheless have a great Sunday and a good start into the new week. And PEACE!!! :big hug:

:big hug: back

But, I don't think 'fundamentalist' is a fair thing to call me. Why? Because my opinion is not religious. I formed my opinion by doing a lot of reading, analysing, and thinking. I've read many opinion pieces, I've read many explanatory pieces that lay out the measurable facts of what has happened, and I've put a lot of effort into understanding the economics at the heart of this crisis.

I'm not an economist, but, I am at the very least a muggle who's done his best to be educated and informed. To me, that's the inverse of a fundamentalist.

B.
 

Shelter

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It's a real shame but in the moment I have not so much time to write and answer here. B ut one thing I must say - I think it will be a little bit unfair to ascribe to me that I will be only a stupid reader of BILD and that I will get my opinions from this paper. It is always very easy to defame a person which is not sailing with the mainstream with such insidious and/or malicious pejorative arrogance "He is ONLY a reader of this BILD-Zeitung! What do you expect!"

I'm not an stupid redneck. And I'm reading every day DIE FRANKFURTER ALLGEMEINE, DIE WELT, DAS HANDELSBLATT and because of Berlin DIE BERLINER MORGENPOST. Sorry yes these papers are all conservative. But I don't know how many coservative papers will be read by a left wing person. Well and from this reason I don't read left wing papers. But as I said above - this doesn't mean that I'll be a stupid boy!

Well - that was something I wanted to say!
 

gb2000ie

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It's a real shame but in the moment I have not so much time to write and answer here. B ut one thing I must say - I think it will be a little bit unfair to ascribe to me that I will be only a stupid reader of BILD and that I will get my opinions from this paper.

I don't believe I said or implied that? Perhaps someone else did?

I'm not an stupid redneck. And I'm reading every day DIE FRANKFURTER ALLGEMEINE, DIE WELT, DAS HANDELSBLATT and because of Berlin DIE BERLINER MORGENPOST. Sorry yes these papers are all conservative. But I don't know how many coservative papers will be read by a left wing person. Well and from this reason I don't read left wing papers. But as I said above - this doesn't mean that I'll be a stupid boy!

My only comment would be to try avoid getting all your news from one side of the political spectrum, and to be aware that most main-stream newspapers are very lacking in technical expertise these days. The level of scientific an economic literacy in news papers is depressing :(

The best way to counter-act that is to follow the blogs of well respected economists, and, crucially, to watch carefully how often history proves them right and wrong, that way, over time, you can start ignoring the ones who history keeps making a fool of, and sticking with the ones who history shows have insight.

Oh - and IMO, the ultimate test of ANY expert in ANY field of whether or not they correct their mistakes. EVERYONE gets things wrong, so if a blog contains no "I got X wrong" posts, then the person is more concerned with their ego than their veracity, and hence not worth reading.

The reason I have been reading Krugman every day for a decade is that he has proven to be both insightful (his projections turn out correct more often than not), and, he is honest enough to post corrections when he gets things wrong. He also uses verifiable facts to explain how he arrives at his views, and as a scientist, I really like that approach - show me the numbers!

B.
 

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I think I've got what Steve Bell (the artist) is saying now, the hastily laid concrete blocks are the Berlin Wall? and Angie's uniform, DDR border guard?
 
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